🔗 Share this article

With nine goals in his initial seven league matches, Manchester City striker Erling Haaland has kicked off the season on fire.

While it is not his most impressive beginning to a campaign - he scored 11 goals in his first seven games in the 2022-23 season and double digits last year - it nonetheless positions him three goals ahead in the opening stages for this term's Premier League Golden Boot.

What makes this zero of his nine conversions have been spot-kicks makes it all the more impressive.

Why Haaland Stands Out

Certainly, injury could definitively intervene in the eventual Golden Boot winner, but there are two primary explanations why Haaland is such a strong favourite for the award so early in the season.

To begin with, the number of goals he has currently registered - and, just as importantly, the number and quality of chances he is getting.

And second, the sluggish beginning his typical competitors for the honor have made.

Chance Quality Assessment

A player's expected goals number (xG) indicates how many goals a English league attacker has traditionally converted from the quantity and caliber of scoring situations he's encountered.

This doesn't represent a number randomly picked by statistics boffins, but by Premier League history.

When examining at attackers' xG statistics in the Premier League so far this term from normal play, the Norwegian striker is getting so many more quality chances to score than anyone else.

Actually, even if Haaland didn't excel at converting opportunities than any other player in the league, he would nonetheless have netted over double the amount goals as the remainder of the league.

Opportunity Analysis

That is demonstrated by breaking down the number and quality of scoring situations that attackers have encountered in the top flight so far.

Haaland has taken 29 shots so far this term, 12 more than any other player.

Interestingly, this is not that remarkable for him - he had previously registered more open-play attempts at this juncture in the most recent two terms (30 in last season and 34 in 2024-25).

What is, however exceptional even for Haaland is the standard of scoring situations he has had this campaign. His attempts have had an expected goals rating of an average of 0.27.

This statistic indicates is that attackers have typically netted the attempts he's taken at a rate of 27%.

Regarding attackers registering at least 10 shots, only Blues playmaker Enzo Fernandez has had more straightforward opportunities to convert per attempt - due to a few simple finishes against the Hammers and Seagulls.

City striker's xG statistic of an average of 0.27 is significantly greater than the 0.17 expected goals per effort he had at the opening of last term.

Essentially, the scoring situations he has had in 2025-26 have been notably easier to find the net from in a restructured Manchester City side than those at the beginning of last season.

Past Performance Analysis

Beginning a campaign so strongly is, as previously stated, not uncommon for Haaland. Following seven matches last campaign he had registered ten strikes - four additional compared to any other player and six more than Mohamed Salah.

Yet it was the Reds attacker who secured the scoring title with 29 goals, a touchdown more than the Manchester City striker.

During the current term, while Haaland has started in blistering form, Salah has scored half the number goals and had half the scoring situations (xG) than at this juncture last term.

Actually this has been the least productive beginning to a English top-flight campaign the Pharaohs star has made.

Competitors' Modest Opening

It isn't only Salah who has opened quietly either. When examining at the top 11 scorers in the Premier League last term, Haaland has scored as many goals as the other 10 players collectively so far.

Whether due to injuries - several key attackers - protracted transfer stories in a specific forward's circumstances or merely because their sides have underperformed (multiple established scorers), Haaland's probable competitors in the race for the Golden Boot have failed to perform so far.

European Golden Shoe Race

Even as Haaland seems the clear favourite for the Premier League scoring title, what about the European Golden Shoe that is awarded to the footballer scoring the most in Europe's top-five leagues?

That contest is considerably more open at this early stage because two world-class strikers have also started in great form, with eleven and nine strikes respectively.

The circumstance Haaland has scored so many times and has the highest xG of the three players despite not attempting any penalties positions him as the favourite.

But since the two continental superstars are two of the best converters in European soccer in terms of exceeding their expected goals, the battle continues intensely.